Ideal State and Future State Thinking: Imagination, Not Fantasy

This is a machine-assisted translation of the original Dutch version.

This post includes downloadable resources.

Putting Out Fires, and Worse...

"I know where we need to go, but I just don't have the time. Once one fire is put out, I have to run to the next. Even though our potential is so much higher." A typical conversation with operations leaders. You probably recognize it.

We won't solve that problem in a single article; that would be insulting to the people who work hard on the shop floor every day. We can, however, try to offer some perspective on how you look at problems.

This blog post is not about root cause problem solving; most managers know they shouldn't just treat symptoms. Instead, this is about working towards something (an Ideal State) rather than working reactively.

Knowing Where to Go... and Communicating It

The first sentence from our manager above names a very important point: where do we need to go? In many cases, this is clear to leadership: measurable targets are set, and leaders know from experience which systems work well in an organization.

However, the first trap is that people often do not talk about this as clearly as they think. So, before starting an improvement (or design) project, it helps to write on a sheet of paper:

Where do we need to go?

Next, it is just as important to check if you, your fellow leaders, and your team agree that this is indeed where you should be going. If not: there is some work to do first to get on the same page. You can easily update your sheet of paper. It is not written in stone.

On your paper, briefly sketch the business context (what is happening around us, what is happening within our department). Add one or more measurable targets (e.g., "quality has been below target for three weeks") with visuals, and then the goal. Make this goal SMART¹.

A second stumbling block is often:

How do we get there?

Many managers struggle to find the right balance here: either you micromanage with too much direction and detail, or you "trust the team" and simply throw the work over the wall.

Your role as a leader here is more dynamic. First and foremost, you are a sponsor:² it is your job to remove the roadblocks that your team needs help with.

Secondly, you apply situational leadership³ here. Some teams and/or experts can direct themselves perfectly. You then act as a sounding board and a cheerleader. Often, a pat on the back and holding up a mirror is enough. Of course, you should remain involved and interested.

Other people need a bit more direction. In that case, you take a leading role over the process, not the content. You can do this by acting as the process leader yourself, or by training and coaching people to do it.

Steering on Process, Not (So Much) on Content

When we say you shouldn't control the content, some people take that too literally. Without understanding the work, they start playing cheerleader for their team, as long as the solutions give the illusion of progress and use the right buzzwords.

A good leader understands the business. They often have more context than the teams. Your job is to understand what path the team is on, where the solution can work, and where it still needs to be adjusted. It is up to you to ensure through coaching (and that can be direct) that you fully support the content yourself and that it is the right choice for the company.

However, it is not your job to invent the solution yourself. In the best case, you had a good solution, but not the best one. In the worst case, you had the wrong solution, and you lose your people's buy-in.

Use your instinct for good solutions to give direction and to evaluate, not to force your solution on the team.

Often you will see that if you honestly take a step back, the team's solution is a bit different from yours, but it is (at least) as good. Any missing points compared to what you had imagined can usually be built into the new solution.

Ahem, the Process

But I wanted to convince you that you do need to make sure the right process is followed. Fortunately, that process is quite simple:

1. Goal/Context: Does everyone understand where we want to go?
2. Current State/Problems: Does everyone understand what is going wrong today, or where things can be improved?
3. Ideal State: If you could start from a blank sheet of paper, what is the ideal solution?
4. Future State(s): If we cannot reach the ideal solution within our timeline or budget, what is the second-best, or third-best solution that moves in the direction of the ideal solution?
5. Actions:
   • Which hypothesis can we test immediately: PDCA on the shop floor, Excel simulations, etc.
   • What are the most important actions we need to take to achieve our Future State? (Testing hypotheses, Documenting, Training, Informing, etc.)

This is the process. To measure everything properly, you also bring your metrics along and ensure a clear communication plan. For the workshop, make sure everything is prepared: both the logistics (calendars, rooms, markers and boards, floor visits, lunch, etc.) and the content (translating data into insights, an inspiring speaker⁴, training materials, possible technical solutions and accompanying data, etc.).

More Tips?

Since the text is getting a bit long, here are a few more practical tips:

• Overall: Use the power of drawings and visuals. Process maps, VSMs, graphs. Put them where everyone can see them in the room. You can use them later for your report-out, or on Day 2 for a recap of Day 1.
• Current State: Go observe the process and draw what is actually happening, not how you think the process works. Reality often has many more exceptions and shortcuts than you think. For this, let the people who do the process speak. You supplement this with supporting and management staff.
• Ideal State: It can be powerful to work based on a limited number of design principles. This yields consistent, simple solutions. For an ideal state, people need to use their imagination, not their fantasy⁵.
• Future State(s): Introduce constraints one by one, instead of all at once. As soon as you resolve a constraint through process improvement, you can easily adopt the next Ideal State step. Most groups will raise objections to the ideal state themselves. As a facilitator, park those during the Ideal State exercise and bring them back during the Future State exercise. One by one, in order of impact/size.
• Actions: Test as much as possible during the workshop. Arrange for a quick and immediate report-out to your leaders. Let the participants do this themselves. Be clear about agreements and deadlines.

Conclusion

Sadly, there are no shortcuts to putting out fires. The best way to make sure all that effort is not wasted is to use those fires strategically for process improvement. Today you got a few tips and tools for that:

• Be a leader: sponsorship and situational leadership
• Make sure the team follows a good process: Context & goal, Current State, Ideal State, Future State(s), and Actions

In the context, you explain where you want to go with the organization and how great the group's potential is. Here you inspire.

In the process, you lead. At roadblocks, you sponsor.

For the content, you learn and listen.

After the process: double-loop learning. How do we do even better on the next one?

What went well and should be kept, and what do you adjust next time?

That is how you turn fires into a better process and a stronger, learning organization.

As a bonus: if you want to get your workshop off to a good start, the attached one-pager will probably help. Use it as a tool, not an end in itself. And don't be afraid to erase things several times and make them clearer.

Good luck!